External validation of a lung cancer-based prediction model for two-year mortality in esophageal cancer patient cohorts.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: Chemo-radiotherapy can improve the oncological outcome of esophageal cancer (EC) patients, but may cause long term radiation-induced toxicity, including an increased risk of non-cancer related death. For lung cancer patients, a model to predict 2-year total mortality using mean heart dose (MHD) and gross tumor volume (GTV) has previously been developed and validated. This project aimed to externally validate this model in EC patients. METHODS: Five EC patient cohorts from 3 different Dutch centres were used for model validation. External validity of the model was assessed separately in definitive (n = 170) and neo-adjuvant (n = 568) chemoradiotherapy (dCRT and nCRT) patients. External validity was assessed in terms of calibration by calibration plots, calibration-in-the-large (CITL) and calibration slope (CS), and discrimination by assessment of the c-statistic. If suboptimal model performance was observed, the model was further updated accordingly. RESULTS: For the dCRT patients, good calibration was found after adjustment of the intercept (CITL 0.00; CS 1.08). The c-statistic of the adjusted model was 0.67 (95%CI: 0.58 to 0.75). For nCRT patients the model needed adjustment of both the slope and the intercept because of initial miscalibration in the validation population (CITL 0.00; CS 1.72). After recalibration, the model showed perfect calibration (i.e., CITL 0, CS 1), as is common after recalibration. The c-statistic of the recalibrated model equaled 0.62 (95%CI: 0.57 to 0.67). CONCLUSION: The existing model for 2-year mortality prediction in lung cancer patients, based on the predictive factors MHD and GTV, showed good performance in EC patients after updating the intercept and/or slope of the original model.

Patterns of recurrence following definitive chemoradiation for patients with proximal esophageal cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the patterns of recurrence and overall survival (OS) in patients achieving clinical complete response after treatment with definitive chemoradiation (CRT) for proximal esophageal cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with proximal esophageal cancer treated with CRT between 2004 and 2014 in 11 centers in the Netherlands were included. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cumulative incidence of first recurrence (locoregional or distant) and locoregional recurrence (LRR) were assessed using competing risk analyses. RESULTS: In 197 of the 200 identified patients, response was evaluated, 133 (68%) showed a complete response. In complete responders, median OS, three-year OS, and PFS were 45.0 months (95% CI 34.8-61.5 months), 58% (95% CI 48-66), and 49% (95% CI 40-57), respectively. Three- and five-year risk of recurrence were respectively 40% (95% CI 31-48), and 45% (95% CI 36-54). Three- and five-year risk of LRR were 26% (95% CI 19-33), and 30% (95% CI 22-38). Eight of 32 patients with an isolated LRR underwent salvage surgery, with a median OS of 32.0 months (95% CI 6.8-not reached). CONCLUSION: In patients with a complete response after definitive CRT for proximal esophageal cancer, most recurrences were locoregional and developed within the first three years after CRT. These findings suggest to shorten locoregional follow-up from five to three years.

A meta-analysis on salvage surgery as a potentially curative procedure in patients with isolated local recurrent or persistent esophageal cancer after chemoradiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Isolated local recurrent or persistent esophageal cancer (EC) after curative intended definitive (dCRT) or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) with initially omitted surgery, is a potential indication for salvage surgery. We aimed to evaluate safety and efficacy of salvage surgery in these patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A systematic literature search following PRISMA guidelines was performed using databases of PubMed/Medline. All included studies were performed in patients with persistent or recurrent EC after initial treatment with dCRT or nCRT, between 2007 and 2017. Survival analysis was performed with an inverse-variance weighting method. RESULTS: Of the 278 identified studies, 28 were eligible, including a total of 1076 patients. Postoperative complications after salvage esophagectomy were significantly more common among patients with isolated persistent than in those with locoregional recurrent EC, including respiratory (36.6% versus 22.7%; difference in proportion 10.9 with 95% confidence interval (CI) [3.1; 18.7]) and cardiovascular complications (10.4% versus 4.5%; difference in proportion 5.9 with 95% CI [1.5; 10.2]). The pooled estimated 30- and 90-day mortality was 2.6% [1.6; 3.6] and 8.0% [6.3; 9.8], respectively. The pooled estimated 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) were 39.0% (95% CI: [35.8; 42.2]) and 19.4% [95% CI:16.5; 22.4], respectively. Patients with isolated persistent or recurrent EC after initial CRT had similar 5-year OS (14.0% versus 19.7%, difference in proportion -5.7, 95% CI [-13.7; 2.3]). CONCLUSIONS: Salvage surgery is a potentially curative procedure in patients with locally recurrent or persistent esophageal cancer and can be performed safely after definitive or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy when surgery was initially omitted.

Preoperative image-guided identification of response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer (PRIDE): a multicenter observational study.

BACKGROUND: Nearly one third of patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced esophageal cancer have a pathologic complete response (pCR) of the primary tumor upon histopathological evaluation of the resection specimen. The primary aim of this study is to develop a model that predicts the probability of pCR to nCRT in esophageal cancer, based on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI), dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography with computed tomography (18F-FDG PET-CT). Accurate response prediction could lead to a patient-tailored approach with omission of surgery in the future in case of predicted pCR or additional neoadjuvant treatment in case of non-pCR. METHODS: The PRIDE study is a prospective, single arm, observational multicenter study designed to develop a multimodal prediction model for histopathological response to nCRT for esophageal cancer. A total of 200 patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer - of which at least 130 patients with adenocarcinoma and at least 61 patients with squamous cell carcinoma - scheduled to receive nCRT followed by esophagectomy will be included. The primary modalities to be incorporated in the prediction model are quantitative parameters derived from MRI and 18F-FDG PET-CT scans, which will be acquired at fixed intervals before, during and after nCRT. Secondary modalities include blood samples for analysis of the presence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) at 3 time-points (before, during and after nCRT), and an endoscopy with (random) bite-on-bite biopsies of the primary tumor site and other suspected lesions in the esophagus as well as an endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) with fine needle aspiration of suspected lymph nodes after finishing nCRT. The main study endpoint is the performance of the model for pCR prediction. Secondary endpoints include progression-free and overall survival. DISCUSSION: If the multimodal PRIDE concept provides high predictive performance for pCR, the results of this study will play an important role in accurate identification of esophageal cancer patients with a pCR to nCRT. These patients might benefit from a patient-tailored approach with omission of surgery in the future. Vice versa, patients with non-pCR might benefit from additional neoadjuvant treatment, or ineffective therapy could be stopped. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The article reports on a health care intervention on human participants and was prospectively registered on March 22, 2018 under ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03474341 .

A comparison of carboplatin and paclitaxel with cisplatinum and 5-fluorouracil in definitive chemoradiation in esophageal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: In esophageal cancer (EC) patients who are not eligible for surgery, definitive chemoradiation (dCRT) with curative intent using cisplatinum with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) is the standard chemotherapy regimen. Nowadays carboplatin/paclitaxel is also often used. In this study, we compared survival and toxicity rates between both regimens. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This multicenter study included 102 patients treated in five centers in the Northeast Netherlands from 1996 till 2008. Forty-seven patients received cisplatinum/5-FU (75 mg/m(2) and 1 g/m(2)) and 55 patients carboplatin/paclitaxel (AUC2 and 50 mg/m(2)). RESULTS: Overall survival (OS) was not different between the cisplatinum/5-FU and carboplatin/paclitaxel group {[P = 0.879, hazard ratio (HR) 0.97 [confidence interval (CI) 0.62-1.51]}, with a median survival of 16.1 (CI 11.8-20.5) and 13.8 months (CI 10.8-16.9). Median disease-free survival (DFS) was comparable [P = 0.760, HR 0.93 (CI 0.60-1.45)] between the cisplatinum/5-FU group [11.1 months (CI 6.9-15.3)] and the carboplatin/paclitaxel group [9.7 months (CI 5.1-14.4)]. Groups were comparable except clinical T stage was higher in the carboplatin/paclitaxel group (P = 0.008). High clinical T stage (cT4) was not related to OS and DFS in a univariate analysis (P = 0.250 and P = 0.201). A higher percentage of patients completed the carboplatin/paclitaxel regimen (82% versus 57%, P = 0.010). Hematological and nonhematological toxicity (≥grade 3) in the carboplatin/paclitaxel group (4% and 18%) was significantly lower than in the cisplatinum/5-FU (19% and 38%, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we showed comparable outcome, in terms of DFS and OS for carboplatin/paclitaxel compared with cisplatinum/5-FU as dCRT treatment in EC patients. Toxicity rates were lower in the carboplatin/paclitaxel group together with higher treatment compliance. Carboplatin/paclitaxel as an alternative treatment of cisplatinum/5-FU is a good candidate regimen for further evaluation.